![]() ![]() This study was also supported by the George Bunn Wisconsin Distinguished Graduate Fellowship in Energy Analysis and Policy (DA) and the Wes and Ankie Foell Graduate Award in Energy Analysis and Policy (DA). This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.ĭata Availability: All data are available through Mary Sternitsky ( of the University of Wisconsin - Madison, Nelson Institute Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment.įunding: This study was conducted with support from the National Institutes of Health Grant 1R21ES020232-01 received by TH, MH, PM, DA, VSL, and JAP. Received: FebruAccepted: Published: July 3, 2018Ĭopyright: © 2018 Abel et al. PLoS Med 15(7):Īcademic Editor: Madeleine Thomson, Africa Program, UNITED STATES (2018) Air-quality-related health impacts from climate change and from adaptation of cooling demand for buildings in the eastern United States: An interdisciplinary modeling study. Increased air conditioning, specifically, accounts for 654 future summer PM 2.5-related deaths (approximately $6 billion cost-based on a value of statistical life calculated from 26 studies-and a 4.8% increase above climate change impacts alone) and 315 O 3-related deaths (approximately $3 billion cost and an 8.7% increase above climate change impacts alone).Ĭitation: Abel DW, Holloway T, Harkey M, Meier P, Ahl D, Limaye VS, et al.We calculated that climate change alone increases summer air-pollution-related premature mortality by about 13,000 deaths due to PM 2.5 and 3,000 deaths due to O 3 (consistent with other studies).We found that concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) and ozone (O 3) increase in a warmer climate and that 3.8% of the total increase in PM 2.5 and 6.7% of the total increase in ozone (O 3) are attributable to extra air conditioning use.We used computer models to calculate the air pollution and health impacts of a warmer climate with and without greater use of air conditioning and subsequent increases in harmful emissions from power plants.As a result, we do not project the future, but rather describe the potential damages from interactions arising between climate, energy use, and air quality. Limitations of this study include modeling only a single month, based on 1 model-year of future climate simulations. Air conditioning adaptation accounts for 654 (range of 87 to 1,245) of the PM 2.5-related deaths (approximately US$6 billion cost, a 4.8% increase above climate change impacts alone) and 315 (range of 198 to 438) of the O 3-related deaths (approximately US$3 billion cost, an 8.7% increase above climate change impacts alone). Health impacts assessment finds that for a mid-century climate change scenario (with adaptation), annual PM 2.5-related adult mortality increases by 13,547 deaths (14 concentration–response functions with mean incidence range of 1,320 to 26,481, approximately US$126 billion cost) and annual O 3-related adult mortality increases by 3,514 deaths (3 functions with mean incidence range of 2,175 to 4,920, approximately US$32.5 billion cost), calculated as a 3-month summer estimate based on July modeling. Therefore, 3.8% of the total increase in PM 2.5 and 6.7% of the total increase in O 3 is attributable to adaptive behavior (extra air conditioning use). A larger change is found when comparing the present day to the combined impact of climate change and increased building energy use, where PM 2.5 increases 61.1% (2.60 μg/m 3) and O 3 increases 15.9% (8.64 ppbv). We find that by mid-century, climate change alone can increase fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) concentrations by 58.6% (2.50 μg/m 3) and ozone (O 3) by 14.9% (8.06 parts per billion by volume ) for the month of July. We performed simulations for a representative present-day climate scenario and 2 representative mid-century climate scenarios, with and without exacerbated power sector emissions from adaptation in building energy use. ![]() We used a modeling system that included downscaling historical and future climate data with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, simulating building electricity demand using the Regional Building Energy Simulation System (RBESS), simulating power sector production and emissions using MyPower, simulating ambient air quality using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, and calculating the incidence of adverse health outcomes using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). ![]()
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